JRE 2465 · March 10, 2026

Michael Shellenberger

politicsmilitaryhistoryphilosophy

Who is Michael Shellenberger?

Michael Shellenberger is an author, journalist, and founder of Civilization Works. He is the CBR Chair of Politics, Censorship, and Free Speech at the University of Austin. His books include “Apocalypse Never" and “San Fransicko."

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Topics and Timestamps

01Trump's Iran strike represents a complete break from the post-WWII foreign policy establishment, with Trump making independent decisions without think tank or State Department consensus
02Shellenberger argues Trump is genuinely his own man, pointing to him refusing to give Elon Musk the EV battery subsidy despite his $250 million campaign contribution
03The administration seems focused on asserting American power and leverage rather than achieving specific regime change outcomes in Iran, Venezuela, or elsewhere
04Biden's open border policy was driven by a combination of his cognitive decline and wanting to give progressive activists what they wanted on immigration
05Mail-in voting and lack of voter ID requirements are indefensible policies that don't actually help poor people vote, as demonstrated by interviews showing most people already have ID
06The collapse of the old liberal international order is being recognized globally, even by figures like Canadian PM Mark Carney at Davos
▶Shellenberger explains Trump's Iran strategy isn't about regime change but asserting American power0:08:30
▶Joe expresses confusion about why any of this makes sense given Trump ran on no more wars0:12:15
▶Shellenberger uses Elon not getting battery subsidy as evidence Trump is truly independent0:15:45
▶Discussion of Reagan's moral argument against communism parallels to current Iran situation0:28:00
▶Voter ID debate with Joe arguing it's obviously reasonable to require ID to vote0:42:30

The Show

Michael Shellenberger returns to discuss the Trump administration's radical departure from traditional American foreign policy, specifically the Iran strike that Joe found confusing and concerning. The conversation centers on whether Trump is actually independent or being influenced by hawks like Netanyahu, with Shellenberger arguing pretty convincingly that Trump does whatever he wants. His evidence is compelling: he literally wouldn't give Elon Musk the battery subsidy he lobbied for, so why would he bend the knee to Netanyahu? That's fair.

The broader point Shellenberger makes is that we're witnessing the complete collapse of the post-1945 international order where the UN, Security Council, think tanks, and the so-called Cathedral decided everything. Trump just ignores all of it and acts. He's not trying to achieve regime change in Iran necessarily, he's just asserting power and using leverage. Whether that's smart or reckless is still unclear, but Shellenberger sees parallels to Reagan pushing back against communism with a moral argument, except this time there's less moral clarity about what we're actually trying to accomplish.

Joe pushes back on this being a good idea, especially given Trump ran on no more wars, and Shellenberger admits he has mixed feelings. But he also points out that we don't have opposition leaders to work with in Iran, Venezuela, or Cuba, so the whole "they should rise up" narrative is halfhearted theater. The administration knows this.

The conversation pivots to Biden's open border policy, which Shellenberger says was partly Biden's cognitive decline and partly just wanting to appease the progressive left and Soros-backed immigration groups. Joe brings up the obvious voter importation strategy, which Shellenberger actually disputes using polling data showing that if all eligible voters had voted, Trump would have won by three points instead of 1.5. The voter ID debate gets heated with Joe rightfully pointing out that people need ID for vaccines but suddenly don't need ID to vote, which is absurd. Shellenberger agrees it makes no sense and that progressives just repeat what they hear without thinking about it.

The episode explores how Trump represents something genuinely new in American politics: a president who isn't beholden to the institutional structure that normally constrains executive power. Whether that's liberating or dangerous remains the fundamental question they can't quite answer.

Best Quotes

“Trump is in charge like he's making these decisions. There's nobody behind him. There's nobody pulling the strings, not the Russians, not the Israelis, nobody.”

— Michael Shellenberger